Why 2026 Might Be the Year the Buyer-Seller Standoff Ends
Buyer and seller pricing expectations have been stuck apart for three years. Here's why that gap is finally starting to close, and why South Bay and Torrance owners have less distance to travel than most.
If you've talked to a broker about selling in the last couple of years, you've probably heard some version of the same thing: buyers and sellers just aren't agreeing on price. Sellers are still thinking about what their building was worth in 2021. Buyers are pricing in what it costs to borrow money today. That gap is the real reason so few deals have actually closed since rates started climbing in 2022, and it's been the top story in multifamily investment for three years running.
Here's the part that hasn't gotten as much attention: that gap is finally starting to narrow, and if you own property in the South Bay or Torrance, you're sitting closer to where buyers already expect pricing to land than owners in most other markets.
The National Standoff
At a recent multifamily owners conference, one senior investment sales executive summed up the standoff simply: sellers are still anchored to 2021 pricing, while buyers are waiting to see where 2026 pricing actually settles. That tension has kept deal volume well below the highs of 2021 and 2022, even in markets where fundamentals like rent growth and occupancy have stayed solid.
But a few things are moving in a way that's putting real pressure on that standoff to break. The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate three times in late 2025, bringing it down to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, and markets are pricing in at least one more cut in 2026. More predictable borrowing costs make it easier for buyers and sellers to agree on what a building is actually worth, because both sides are underwriting off the same set of assumptions instead of guessing where rates go next.
- National multifamily transaction activity in January 2026 was up 27% year over year, an early signal that deal flow is accelerating.
- Roughly $162 billion in multifamily loans are scheduled to mature in 2026, a 56% jump from the prior year, pushing more owners toward a decision.
- The Mortgage Bankers Association expects multifamily loan origination volume to grow 16% in 2026 as lenders compete for deals again.
Why South Bay and Torrance Have Less Distance to Close
Here's where the local picture matters more than the national headlines. CBRE reports that stable, core multifamily assets nationally are trading at cap rates of roughly 4.5% to 5.0%, with value-add properties closer to 6.0%. Torrance and the broader South Bay have been trading right in that same 4.5% to 5.5% band for a while now. In other words, local pricing here already reflects roughly what institutional buyers expect to pay nationally. Owners in this submarket aren't waiting for a big repricing to catch up. The market has largely already adjusted.
That's a meaningfully different position than markets where sellers are still holding out for cap rates in the 3% range while buyers are underwriting closer to 5.5% or 6%. When the gap is that wide, deals simply don't happen. When it's as narrow as it already is in Torrance and the South Bay, it takes a lot less to get a transaction across the finish line.
What's Actually Changing This Year
A few forces are working together here, not just one. Rates are more stable than they've been in years, which lets both sides underwrite with more confidence. Lending is loosening up, with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac supporting more volume and banks competing harder for multifamily loans again. And a wave of loan maturities is forcing some owners who have been sitting on the sidelines to finally make a decision, whether that's refinancing at today's higher rate or selling.
None of that guarantees a flood of transactions overnight. Total apartment sales volume nationally is still well below the 2021 to 2022 peak, and plenty of owners in higher-priced markets are still holding out. But the direction is consistent: bid-ask spreads are narrowing, financing is more predictable, and investors who pulled back over the last two years are starting to come back into the market with real capital to deploy.
What This Means If You've Been Waiting
If you've held off on selling because you didn't like what buyers were offering, it's worth revisiting that math now. The gap that kept deals from happening nationally is closing, and in the South Bay and Torrance specifically, it was never as wide to begin with. That combination means owners here are often closer to a workable number with a real buyer than they realize.
It also means the window of opportunity that comes with being ahead of a broader recovery, meaning less competition from other sellers, more attention from buyers who are eager to deploy capital, won't stay open indefinitely. As more owners nationally come to the same conclusion, competition for buyer attention will increase.
Know Your Numbers Before You Decide
If you own a multifamily property and want a clear picture of where you can grow your income and increase your property's value before deciding whether to sell, request a free Stress Test. No confusing jargon, just an honest look at your best options: keep and upgrade, refinance to reinvest the cash, or sell for a better return.
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Sources: CBRE U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook 2026 (Multifamily); Mortgage Bankers Association, 2026 Commercial/Multifamily Forecast; GlobeSt. Multifamily Owners Summit panel commentary; industry transaction and loan maturity tracking reported by MMC Investment Group and Multifamily Dive. Cap rate figures are market averages and vary by asset class, condition, and location; consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.